Browns - Deshaun Watson - Football Talk | Barking Hard

Browns Deshaun Watson - Football Talk

The_QCT

The_QCT

Resident CFB Guru
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With the idea of turning the page and talking football, I wanted to look at a couple of key areas where Baker Mayfield handcuffed this team and where an improvement with Deshaun Watson means some potentially really big things in Cleveland.

Let's start with 4th quarter play. It's only fair to compare 2020 numbers. Why? Because it was Watson's last year and it was also Baker's best year in the NFL. Therefore, it's a very good basis for comparison.

***Keep in mind that PFF ranked the Browns OL #1 in 2020 and Houston's 23rd. HUGE, HUGE advantage for Mayfield.

4th Quarter Passer Rating (NFL Rank)
Watson - 127.3 (3rd)
Baker - 100.1 (23rd)

4th Quarter Successful Play Rate
Watson - 61% (4th)
Baker - 51% (30th)

4th Quarter Comp %
Watson - 73% (6th)
Baker - 63% (27th)

Watson was clutch in the 4th quarter; Baker was one of the worst QB's in the 4th quarter in the NFL.

Some say Baker played his best football in the shotgun when he can see the field. Really?

QB Rating from the shotgun
Watson - 113.2 (2nd)
Baker - 93.6 (20th)

Successful Play Rate from the Shotgun
Watson - 61% (1st)
Baker - 51% (20th)

Completion % from the Shotgun
Watson - 73% (1st)
Baker - 66% (30th)

OK, OK...in Stefanski's PA based offense, Baker was under center a lot and flourished in 2020.


QB Rating under center
Watson - 126.3 (6th)
Baker - 119.5 (9th)

Successful Play Rate from the Shotgun
Watson - 67% (3rd)
Baker - 61% (11th)

Completion % from the Shotgun
Watson - 72% (9th)
Baker - 70% (15th)

So it is true, Baker was better under center...but Watson was better than Mayfield.

So far, in the 4th quarter, overall in the shotgun and under center, Watson significantly outplayed Mayfield giving Cleveland a significant upgrade. I'll post some more interesting comparisons in area's that the Browns needed an improvement in QB play later. But man, it's about to get real exciting in Cleveland on Sundays.
 
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There's no specific area which comes to mind where Mayfield comes close to Watson. We're getting a better player outright. In all aspects of the game. Watson was a legitimate top 5 quarterback with no notable areas of weakness. That one just isn't really up for debate - and that's coming from someone who thinks Mayfield is better than he's been treated.

I think Watson has been a little slept on because of how bad the Texans have been. But they have been horrific. Especially on the OL. We know quarterbacks tend to get undue credit when winning and unfair blame when loosing, but Watson kind of takes the latter to a whole new level. The Houston Texans were grossly mismanaged from a coaching and personnel perspective, and Watson still shone.

To cut a long story short; I think he rightfully deserves to be in the same conversation with Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers and any of the other league-leading quarterbacks.

This isn't just an upgrade, it's landing one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks.

My only lingering question is what additions we're going to put around Watson. We need to get some additional targets. Nothing seems to have happened yet with Fuller, and I'm hopeful we'll draft someone as soon as is reasonable. I think the window is wide open from day one, and we need to capitalise on that by making sure we're putting plenty of points on the board.

The only downside to Watson is cost. As one of the highest paid players in the league, it's going to be tricky to field a consistent team around him. Although I am happy with what I've seen from Berry in terms of what players we're drafting. And winning teams do tend to lure in cheaper players who want to be part of that. But, yeah, we're looking at a $50M per year quarterback.
 
3rd down in the NFL is critical. How did Watson perform on 3rd down in 2020? Again, we compare 2020 because it was Baker's best year in the NFL and Deshaun's last year. Great data points for a fair comparison.

Remember, Baker had the #1 OL in the NFL while Watson had the #23 overall OL and a bottom 5 pass blocking OL.

3rd Down Passer Rating (NFL Ranking)
Watson - 94.5 (12th)
Baker - 77.6 (24th)

3rd Down & Long (7+) Passer Rating
Watson - 96.5 (10th)
Baker - 63.8 (28th)

3rd Down & short (6 or <) Passer Rating
Watson - 94.6
Baker - 90.8


3rd Down Successful Play Rate
Watson - 46% (6th)
Baker - 43% (12th)

3rd Down & Long Successful Play Rate
Watson - 35% (11th)
Baker - 35% (11th)

3rd Down & Short Successful Play Rate
Watson - 56%
Baker - 53%


3rd Down Completion %
Watson - 63%
Baker - 60%

3rd Down & Long Completion %
Watson - 67% (9th)
Baker - 62% (19th)

3rd Down & Short Completion %
Watson - 60%
Baker - 58%

The Browns should improve on 3rd down with a better decision maker and more accurate passer under center.
 
Ragnar said:
Then I guess we should have went after Jameis the other rapist since we are going off garbage time stat padding. 4-12 doesn't lie.
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So you don't even understand what garbage time is, do you? Poor little guy just runs his mouth with no real knowledge...

Here are actual garbage time stats for each player:

Watson when trailing in Garbage time: 30-39, 77%, 301 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, successful play rate 72% and a 126.1 QB rating
Baker when trailing in Garbage time: 12-17, 71%, 126 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, successful play rate 47%, and a 111.4 QB rating

Watson when leading in Garbage time: no stats; team never led in garbage time
Baker when leading in Garbage time: 14-20, 70%, 118 yards, 1TD, 0 INT, successful play rate 50% and a 101.7 QB Rating.

So, objectively, Neither Watson nor Baker's stats were padded in garbage time as Watson only had 301 yards and 1 TD, while Baker had 244 yards and 2 TD's. But, as typical, Watson was better with his team trailing by a significant amount.

There is not a statistical or mental measure in which Baker Mayfield was the better NFL QB.

And, just for fun, Watson beat Baker head-to-head in college and was the better QB as well. Remember, Watson was the first QB in Division 1 history to pass for 4000 and rush for 1000 in the same season.
 
I am very curious to see the changes Stefanski makes in the offense to fit Watson's skill set. He said in the press conference that he will do so.

The Browns in 2021:
RPO: 34 (21 pass, 13 run)
Play Action: 125

Houston Texans in 2020:
RPO: 86 (57 pass, 29 run)
Play Action: 95

Watson is very effective and flourishes in the RPO game and was even more efficient than Mayfield in the play action game. Stefanski will have to add more RPO to this offense to really utilize Watson's skills.
 
nickers said:
I'll just say this... While everyone is celebrating Bakers demise... Run First QB's like DeRapist don't grow old in the NFL...!! I think Shitpantski's offense will neuter him honestly...
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First, never been accused of rape. So your lame attempt at a nick name epically fails.

Watson has never been a run first QB. Clearly you have not watch a single game of his, including games against the Browns
 
The_QCT said:
With the idea of turning the page and talking football, I wanted to look at a couple of key areas where Baker Mayfield handcuffed this team and where an improvement with Deshaun Watson means some potentially really big things in Cleveland.

Let's start with 4th quarter play. It's only fair to compare 2020 numbers. Why? Because it was Watson's last year and it was also Baker's best year in the NFL. Therefore, it's a very good basis for comparison.

***Keep in mind that PFF ranked the Browns OL #1 in 2020 and Houston's 23rd. HUGE, HUGE advantage for Mayfield.

4th Quarter Passer Rating (NFL Rank)
Watson - 127.3 (3rd)
Baker - 100.1 (23rd)

4th Quarter Successful Play Rate
Watson - 61% (4th)
Baker - 51% (30th)

4th Quarter Comp %
Watson - 73% (6th)
Baker - 63% (27th)

Watson was clutch in the 4th quarter; Baker was one of the worst QB's in the 4th quarter in the NFL.

Some say Baker played his best football in the shotgun when he can see the field. Really?

QB Rating from the shotgun
Watson - 113.2 (2nd)
Baker - 93.6 (20th)

Successful Play Rate from the Shotgun
Watson - 61% (1st)
Baker - 51% (20th)

Completion % from the Shotgun
Watson - 73% (1st)
Baker - 66% (30th)

OK, OK...in Stefanski's PA based offense, Baker was under center a lot and flourished in 2020.


QB Rating under center
Watson - 126.3 (6th)
Baker - 119.5 (9th)

Successful Play Rate from the Shotgun
Watson - 67% (3rd)
Baker - 61% (11th)

Completion % from the Shotgun
Watson - 72% (9th)
Baker - 70% (15th)

So it is true, Baker was better under center...but Watson was better than Mayfield.

So far, in the 4th quarter, overall in the shotgun and under center, Watson significantly outplayed Mayfield giving Cleveland a significant upgrade. I'll post some more interesting comparisons in area's that the Browns needed an improvement in QB play later. But man, it's about to get real exciting in Cleveland on Sundays.
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1 million likes to that. Its amazing to me how the vast majority of the Browns fan base thinks Mayfield is a competent good QB
 
Watson4SuperBowl said:
Its obvious you have no clue about football
Click to expand...

Watson led the NFL in passing in 2020, his last season. Yet we have idiots calling him a ‘run first’ QB.

The reality is that because he’s athletic and black, racist idiots who don’t know anything about football are going to say dumb things like that. But he’s proven over and over again, on the field, he’s a passer first…and big time passer at that.
 
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