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I had an opportunity this weekend to take some time and really review some games involving the consensus top 4 running backs in this year's NFL Draft.
I've included some links to tidy little highlight reels. But as always, I urge you to watch the games.
Trent Richardson - Alabama (5'9" 228 lbs.)
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/LmfM5XZaFR0" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>
I've been down on teams considering Trent Richardson at the top of the draft. When you see the game on television, Trent doesn't really jump off the screen the way Adrian Peterson did coming out of Oklahoma. But when you sit down and watch the games, some very interesting things begin to materialize.
First thing you notice, the kid is an absolute beast. He's so physically strong that some tackles that appear to be outright misses, on closer inspection actually made contact. They just don't have any impact on his path of motion.
He's a compact athlete, with a near perfect running style. He offers almost no target area for opposing defenders, and runs with such a stance as it is virtually impossible to knock him off his course without the full weight of the tackler's body. That said, for a physical runner, Richardson absorbs very little violent contact. His balance and body control allow him to slip punches and avoid direct hits. And in the event of direct contact, his build and body lean combine to make him extremely dangerous to take on head up. It's like trying to tackle a Chevy Malibu.
In the passing game, Trent is a willing and violent blocker with outstanding pocket awareness. (Feeling like a broken record here), He's so physically strong that he can hand check safeties and corners 6 yards off course without breaking stride into a pass pattern. And he's so stout, that he can stone larger linebacker and ends should they get even slightly upright in their rush.
As a receiver, he's got excellent awareness of passing lanes and coverage concepts, and will body off, arm-bar, and flat out manhandle defenders to give his quarterback an alley.
And all of that is just the meat and potatoes of what shows up on film.
The "WOW" stuff shows up in two characteristics... two characteristics that you absolutely cannot teach. It's two tightly interlinked attributes: His burst and his conservation of motion.
Richardson is a clinic in running style. He's balanced with his center of gravity down. His feet are always well spaced - neither crossing, nor "getting narrow" ("getting narrow" is a tendency of runners to get their feet moving one in front of another, narrowing their base and making them easier to knock off course). You never see the ball swinging or the elbows out. He makes constant straight-line progress to his goal. And while his top speed may not be elite in the NFL, his acceleration off the cut is as good as any back in the top 5 of the league today. It's the suddenness from decision-to-cut-to-acceleration that separates Richardson from every back in the draft, and at least half of the NFL.
There is simply no wasted motion. Not to get all John Brenkus on it, but he's so compact and balanced, that virtually all of the lateral force he generates in a cut is moving in the target direction as opposed to the original or "fake" direction... and right now. When he makes a cut, by the time he roles over his second foot, he's at full speed and in perfect running posture. This reduces the opportunity to take big hits as well as reduces strain on the knees and ankles for increased durability.
Often, you'll see guys cut, and in order to overcome their initial momentum, they'll raise their ribcage and throw their weight over their center of gravity. This is why you see guys take such violent blows when they get caught mid-cut. And they put an inordinate strain on their joints to overcome that inertia. Richardson doesn't do that. He maintains his running posture and reduces his vulnerability by controlling his weight distribution. It's a thing of beauty when you watch it up close.
My overall assessment? If Emmitt Smith was built like this kid, he might have run for 25,000 yards. It's a different game today. But Trent Richardson is easily worth any two of the other backs in this class, and would be a value at #4. The Browns may get cute and move around to see if they can get another pick. But he's worth every bit of the number 4.
David Wilson - Virginia Tech (5'10" 206 lbs.)
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/J1bO123KOEM" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>
Next best in the group, in my opinion is VTU's David Wilson. First, let me tell you that we're not talking about the same class of running back as Richardson. Wilson is a solid second tier running back.
David has excellent vision and acceleration. His top end speed more than adequate at the NFL level, but his acceleration is special. He's a leaner, narrower athlete than his draft contemporaries. He's a more traditional "slasher". He gets to top speed effortlessly in open space. And is a consistent homerun threat.
On the downside, he tends to get upright when he runs - taking a lot of unnecessary punishment, and getting knocked off course. He "gets narrow" at times through the hole allowing arm tackles to drag him down.
He needs to get stronger in his lower body, and hit the hole more decisively. I think in a constrained system, where he has very specific responsibilities (Think a zone blocking west coast system - a' la Washington or Houston), Wilson could be a steal in the later parts of Round 2 on through Round 3.
Doug Martin - Boise State (5'9" 223 lbs.)
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/TRv36yaEegg" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>
Doug Martin is the third best prospect in my eyes in the 2012 draft. And the highest boom/bust potential in the group. He's the anti-Trent Richardson. Martin is wildly athletic - emphasis on the "wild". He's a constant blur of motion - wasted and otherwise. He's fast. Really fast. Obscenely fast for someone his size.
The trouble is he doesn't stay behind his pads. He straightens up as he accelerates, and takes some ungodly punishment. His running style is a constant barrage of lateral stresses - head and shoulders going one way, hips another. His spin move would make Dwight Freeney jealous. All that motion does compromise his power and ball security. Two things that he's going to need at the next level.
He's an inconsistent blocker, but a decent pass receiver. He's physically strong, but is inconsistently in good enough body position to flex his ample muscle.
My initial gut on him is to try and tame down that motion and get him to sink those hips a bit... but you don't want to take away his natural aggressiveness. But I also don't want him to spit the bit while I'm trying to run an offense, and flying off in 9 directions.
As far as draft status, you may have to pay a premium for Martin's gifts... but buyer beware. He has the potential to have a very short (albeit exciting) NFL career.
Martin's value starts kicking in about halfway through Round 2. Although, he may come off the board ahead of that. Ideally, he's a top of the third kind of guy. But, someone will roll the dice before then.
Lamar Miller - University of Miami (5'11" 212 lbs.)
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/rt8lcelGD6A" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>
Lamar Miller is the least NFL ready of the group. But that's not to say he doesn't have value. He's got all of the things that you typically have to work a runner out of. He's vertical, he's indecisive, he thinks he's the fastest guy on the field, he thinks every play is a touchdown... on and on.
He's got good size, and outstanding acceleration. He's not blessed with great instincts. But he got hand-of-God type speed. Holy Mother, can this guy run!
At this stage of his development, he's too easy to knock off course, too easy to bring down. He's a decent receiver, but cannot be relied on in blitz pickup. He just lacks the proper weight shift to effectively block defenders much larger than he is. He's a bit of a lunger/leaner type who is easily tossed aside in protection, if he doesn't outright whiff.
Having said that, Lamar presents an excellent opportunity to find work as a kick returner while he hones his craft in the backfield. That really solidifies him as an upper half of the third round talent that may go a little earlier based on that and his flat out speed.
Just thought this might be a good jumping off point for the discussions around the Post-Hillis era in Cleveland.
-jj
I've included some links to tidy little highlight reels. But as always, I urge you to watch the games.
Trent Richardson - Alabama (5'9" 228 lbs.)
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/LmfM5XZaFR0" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>
I've been down on teams considering Trent Richardson at the top of the draft. When you see the game on television, Trent doesn't really jump off the screen the way Adrian Peterson did coming out of Oklahoma. But when you sit down and watch the games, some very interesting things begin to materialize.
First thing you notice, the kid is an absolute beast. He's so physically strong that some tackles that appear to be outright misses, on closer inspection actually made contact. They just don't have any impact on his path of motion.
He's a compact athlete, with a near perfect running style. He offers almost no target area for opposing defenders, and runs with such a stance as it is virtually impossible to knock him off his course without the full weight of the tackler's body. That said, for a physical runner, Richardson absorbs very little violent contact. His balance and body control allow him to slip punches and avoid direct hits. And in the event of direct contact, his build and body lean combine to make him extremely dangerous to take on head up. It's like trying to tackle a Chevy Malibu.
In the passing game, Trent is a willing and violent blocker with outstanding pocket awareness. (Feeling like a broken record here), He's so physically strong that he can hand check safeties and corners 6 yards off course without breaking stride into a pass pattern. And he's so stout, that he can stone larger linebacker and ends should they get even slightly upright in their rush.
As a receiver, he's got excellent awareness of passing lanes and coverage concepts, and will body off, arm-bar, and flat out manhandle defenders to give his quarterback an alley.
And all of that is just the meat and potatoes of what shows up on film.
The "WOW" stuff shows up in two characteristics... two characteristics that you absolutely cannot teach. It's two tightly interlinked attributes: His burst and his conservation of motion.
Richardson is a clinic in running style. He's balanced with his center of gravity down. His feet are always well spaced - neither crossing, nor "getting narrow" ("getting narrow" is a tendency of runners to get their feet moving one in front of another, narrowing their base and making them easier to knock off course). You never see the ball swinging or the elbows out. He makes constant straight-line progress to his goal. And while his top speed may not be elite in the NFL, his acceleration off the cut is as good as any back in the top 5 of the league today. It's the suddenness from decision-to-cut-to-acceleration that separates Richardson from every back in the draft, and at least half of the NFL.
There is simply no wasted motion. Not to get all John Brenkus on it, but he's so compact and balanced, that virtually all of the lateral force he generates in a cut is moving in the target direction as opposed to the original or "fake" direction... and right now. When he makes a cut, by the time he roles over his second foot, he's at full speed and in perfect running posture. This reduces the opportunity to take big hits as well as reduces strain on the knees and ankles for increased durability.
Often, you'll see guys cut, and in order to overcome their initial momentum, they'll raise their ribcage and throw their weight over their center of gravity. This is why you see guys take such violent blows when they get caught mid-cut. And they put an inordinate strain on their joints to overcome that inertia. Richardson doesn't do that. He maintains his running posture and reduces his vulnerability by controlling his weight distribution. It's a thing of beauty when you watch it up close.
My overall assessment? If Emmitt Smith was built like this kid, he might have run for 25,000 yards. It's a different game today. But Trent Richardson is easily worth any two of the other backs in this class, and would be a value at #4. The Browns may get cute and move around to see if they can get another pick. But he's worth every bit of the number 4.
David Wilson - Virginia Tech (5'10" 206 lbs.)
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/J1bO123KOEM" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>
Next best in the group, in my opinion is VTU's David Wilson. First, let me tell you that we're not talking about the same class of running back as Richardson. Wilson is a solid second tier running back.
David has excellent vision and acceleration. His top end speed more than adequate at the NFL level, but his acceleration is special. He's a leaner, narrower athlete than his draft contemporaries. He's a more traditional "slasher". He gets to top speed effortlessly in open space. And is a consistent homerun threat.
On the downside, he tends to get upright when he runs - taking a lot of unnecessary punishment, and getting knocked off course. He "gets narrow" at times through the hole allowing arm tackles to drag him down.
He needs to get stronger in his lower body, and hit the hole more decisively. I think in a constrained system, where he has very specific responsibilities (Think a zone blocking west coast system - a' la Washington or Houston), Wilson could be a steal in the later parts of Round 2 on through Round 3.
Doug Martin - Boise State (5'9" 223 lbs.)
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/TRv36yaEegg" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>
Doug Martin is the third best prospect in my eyes in the 2012 draft. And the highest boom/bust potential in the group. He's the anti-Trent Richardson. Martin is wildly athletic - emphasis on the "wild". He's a constant blur of motion - wasted and otherwise. He's fast. Really fast. Obscenely fast for someone his size.
The trouble is he doesn't stay behind his pads. He straightens up as he accelerates, and takes some ungodly punishment. His running style is a constant barrage of lateral stresses - head and shoulders going one way, hips another. His spin move would make Dwight Freeney jealous. All that motion does compromise his power and ball security. Two things that he's going to need at the next level.
He's an inconsistent blocker, but a decent pass receiver. He's physically strong, but is inconsistently in good enough body position to flex his ample muscle.
My initial gut on him is to try and tame down that motion and get him to sink those hips a bit... but you don't want to take away his natural aggressiveness. But I also don't want him to spit the bit while I'm trying to run an offense, and flying off in 9 directions.
As far as draft status, you may have to pay a premium for Martin's gifts... but buyer beware. He has the potential to have a very short (albeit exciting) NFL career.
Martin's value starts kicking in about halfway through Round 2. Although, he may come off the board ahead of that. Ideally, he's a top of the third kind of guy. But, someone will roll the dice before then.
Lamar Miller - University of Miami (5'11" 212 lbs.)
<iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/rt8lcelGD6A" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>
Lamar Miller is the least NFL ready of the group. But that's not to say he doesn't have value. He's got all of the things that you typically have to work a runner out of. He's vertical, he's indecisive, he thinks he's the fastest guy on the field, he thinks every play is a touchdown... on and on.
He's got good size, and outstanding acceleration. He's not blessed with great instincts. But he got hand-of-God type speed. Holy Mother, can this guy run!
At this stage of his development, he's too easy to knock off course, too easy to bring down. He's a decent receiver, but cannot be relied on in blitz pickup. He just lacks the proper weight shift to effectively block defenders much larger than he is. He's a bit of a lunger/leaner type who is easily tossed aside in protection, if he doesn't outright whiff.
Having said that, Lamar presents an excellent opportunity to find work as a kick returner while he hones his craft in the backfield. That really solidifies him as an upper half of the third round talent that may go a little earlier based on that and his flat out speed.
Just thought this might be a good jumping off point for the discussions around the Post-Hillis era in Cleveland.
-jj
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