NFL Draft - Top-10 drafted QB's vs non-Top-10. A 10 year look back | Barking Hard

NFL Draft Top-10 drafted QB's vs non-Top-10. A 10 year look back

OconRecon

OconRecon

If you're juiceless, you're useless
So, a post on X got me going.

85 QBs were taken after the first 10 picks of the draft in the last 10 years.
Only Purdy (7th round), Dak (4th), Hurts (2nd), and Lamar (late 1st) became meaningful starters.
Thus the conclusion was, "it's BLEAK after those first few picks. The #Browns QB won't be there if they pass at #2."

So, 4 QB's out of 85 is a 4.7% hit rate.

Let's flip it. What's the hit rate within the top-10 picks for drafted QB's?

Here’s a list of top-10 drafted QB’s in the last 10 years:

2024
1. Caleb Williams - Bears (1st overall)
2. Jayden Daniels - Commanders (2nd overall)
3. Drake Maye - Patriots (3rd overall)
4. Michael Penix - Falcons (8th overall)
5. J.J. McCarthy - Vikings (10th overall)

2023
1. Bryce Young - Panthers (1st overall)
2. C.J. Stroud - Texans (2nd overall)
3. Anthony Richardson - Colts (4th overall)

2022 - none

2021
1. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars (1st overall)
2. Zach Wilson - Jets (2nd overall)
3. Trey Lance - 49ers (3rd overall)

2020
1. Joe Burrow - Bengals (1st overall)
2. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins (5th overall)
3. Justin Herbert - Chargers (6th overall)

2019
1. Kyler Murray - Cardinals (1st overall)
2. Daniel Jones - Giants (6th overall)

2018
1. Baker Mayfield - Browns (1st overall)
2. Sam Darnold - Jets (3rd overall)
3. Josh Allen - Bills (7th overall)

2017
1. Mitchell Trubisky - Bears (2nd overall)
2. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs (10th overall)

2016
1. Jared Goff - Rams (1st overall)
2. Carson Wentz - Eagles (2nd overall)

2015
1. Jameis Winston - Buccaneers (1st overall)
2. Marcus Mariota - Titans (2nd overall)

2014
1. Blake Bortles - Jaguars (3rd overall)

Giving the 2024 class some benefit of the doubt, that's 17 out of 26 with NFL success. A 65% hit rate. Hit = "meaningful starter" for context on this math.
Going back further, there are definitely busts in the top-10, like Jamarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf, but those cancel out with gems like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Kind of sort of.

Conclusion

So, in theory ….

If you draft a top-10 QB every year, in a couple of years, you’ll have a successful QB.

If you draft a non-top-10 QB every year, it’ll take you a couple of decades to find the QB.

Maybe, the Browns should draft a QB this year, and if he immediately flames out, we do what the Cardinals did when Rosen wasn't the answer (when they then drafted Kyler Murray), and we draft another QB next year.

2cent theory here boys. In the end, we are due some QB luck by the Gods, the old and the new.
 
Looking at this list, Sanders/Ward are better prospects than Bryce Young, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, and Blake Bortles. Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones can be included as well if considering beyond the top.

So they're squarely in the middle of what you can expect when selecting a QB Top 3.
 
MKO3090 said:
Looking at this list, Sanders/Ward are better prospects than Bryce Young, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, and Blake Bortles. Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones can be included as well if considering beyond the top.

So they're squarely in the middle of what you can expect when selecting a QB Top 3.
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Also better prospects than Richardson, Wilson, Lance, imho.
So who knows in the end, but the numbers favor taking a top-10 QB. Take a chance on Ward or Sanders.

I'd love to see the stat on QB-less teams with top-10 picks, who opted to not take the QB, remained in the QB basement, and had a successful following season.
 
OconRecon said:
Also better prospects than Richardson, Wilson, Lance, imho.
So who knows in the end, but the numbers favor taking a top-10 QB. Take a chance on Ward or Sanders.

I'd love to see the stat on QB-less teams with top-10 picks, who opted to not take the QB, remained in the QB basement, and had a successful following season.
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Again, good QBs get taken high, for obvious reasons.

However, that doesnt mean you should draft a QB high who you otherwise have a round 2 grade on.
 
Stylepoints said:
Again, good QBs get taken high, for obvious reasons.

However, that doesnt mean you should draft a QB high who you otherwise have a round 2 grade on.
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Yeah, don't do it, if you don't like him.
In this case, it seems like there is zero chance these two get out of the top seven without getting drafted.
So, the Browns better ask themselves, are we super sure these two aren't worth an attempt. The one who broke Bernie's records, and the one with the highest completion % in CFB, "are definitely not worth even drafting at 2".

From another thread:

Last year Daniel Jeremiah had the quarterbacks ranked:

1. Williams
5. Maye
6. Daniels
20. McCarthy
29. Nix
33. Penix

This year:

10. Ward
11. Sanders
41. Dart

For me, you don't have to be 100% sold on a guy. You just have to be mostly convinced he's worth a shot. Not a long shot, but a shot.
 
TheBestPlayersPlay said:
What's going on with Lawrence? You don't think the Browns should try to trade for him? Is he just totally broken or what?
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He was put behind the 8 ball in year one with the Urbsn Meyer debacle. The owner & GM are a joke (nobody would take the HC job with that GM there).

Hasn’t had a WR1 ever.

Hasn’t had an OL ever. Got sacked 32 times in rookie year, 35 times in 23 and 18 time in less than 10 games last year…and eventually was knocked out for the year.

Yeah, I’d take him in a heartbeat. He’s a new dad this year…and that is one of the things that refocused and calmed down Baker. He’s still one of the most talented QB’s in the league…and the Talent is still all there. I think he can thrive in Stefanski’s system.

I’d take him over every QB in the draft and FA.
 
TheBestPlayersPlay said:
We agree. So if a team like say Pittsburgh pulls off a trade for him and we don't ...it will speak volumes.
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I'll rage if Pittsburgh trades for him

And maybe buy a Pittsburgh shirt

200w.webp
 
TheBestPlayersPlay said:
I don't think it was debunked. In fact it was Trevor's agent who told him about it. Trevor says he is happy where he is and he isn't going anywhere. I am hoping he will be happier here. 😀
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The tweet from Ryan Burr (who ever he is) set the whole nonsense off. He claimed someone in the Jags organization told him PIT inquired about Lawrence. Hours later just about every beat writer for PIT and JAX come out saying it's fake news. Along with national media reporters.

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Trevor Lawrence makes it clear after recently debunked trade rumors: 'I'm not going to Pittsburgh'
 
So, what was the knock on failed recently drafted top-10 QB's?
  • Richardson - low comp rate. 54%
  • Wilson - injuries, bad against good D's, lots of turnover worthy throws
  • Lance - only 17 college starts
  • Jones - injuries and lots of INT's
  • Trubisky - 13 starts, very small sample size
  • Wentz - Depo called him out as a "no" from the jump. Injuries and 23 college starts
  • Bortles - bad mechanics and INT's

So, if you're anti-Sanders, what's the concern?

Completion rate 74%
Durable. Has only missed one game in his HS and college career combined
Quantity of starts - 50 games
Mechanics - this has been said to be a positive trait of his
Level on competition - it's not as bad as you'd think
Arm strength - not incredible, but everyone also seems to point out there's enough to make every throw. Draft bio: "Steps in to drive throws between the hashes and puts it on-frame." Seems good enough.

His draft bio gives him a 6.3 rating and projected to be a plus starter. Exact same grade as Patrick Mahomes.
(no, I'm not saying he's the next Mahomes. I've just always contended, with as important as the position is, it's worth a shot)

 
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