Browns Game Thread - Week 18: Browns @ Picksburg | Page 2 | Barking Hard

Browns Game Thread Week 18: Browns @ Picksburg

Kegeratorz said:
I believe you. Most sports fans have delusional expectations and make decisions based on emotions at the slight of their frustrations.
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So you have special insight into the minds of "most sports fans" and well understand their decision-making process? Good for you. I have trouble just keeping up with my own thoughts much less "most sports fans'" thoughts.
 
nickers said:
I think he's doing "Just Ok"... Not great by any means...
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I really think part of it is Stefanski's offense, which will always be run first. Watson will have to tone down his desire to make big plays all the time and just make big plays in key situations. I'm not sure the Stefanski/Watson relationship will stay all love and kisses. And we know who wins that battle. Not Stefanski.
 
jaydog said:
Not pretending anything. His defense only gave up 17 points in that game and he got a ring against a HOF'er QB. You might've heard of him. It rhymes with Peyton Manning?
😬

It looks like from your post here you are into all the analytics going on in Berea. Are you?
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I am only into good analysis.
They say stats are for losers, but better stats are for winners.
And I think DVOA is one of the best measures.

It's not 1980 anymore. Mantras and empty platitudes are not winning you many games.
One would be a fool not to analyze their games.
 
What's the formula for this DVOA you speak of?

I don't disagree, btw. I just can't have it affecting KS' decisions during games. KS has to know his team and have a sense of maintaining the momentum and if his offense has a good rhythm going.
 
jaydog said:
What's the formula for this DVOA you speak of?

I don't disagree, btw. I just can't have it affecting KS' decisions during games. KS has to know his team and have a sense of maintaining the momentum and if his offense has a good rhythm going.
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Defense Adjusted Value Over Average.

It takes the play by play and measures if the play on down and distance and yard line was better or worse than average. Adjusted for defense.
It is the best and most thorough way of analyzing a play I know. Perfect? Nothing is perfect.
Football is unpredictable, but trying to make sense of it is what makes it fun.

A sweep on 3rd and 8... isnt fun.
 
Stylepoints said:
Analysis is just a lot of math.
Sometimes it is better to go for 2. There's an easy chart made for that.

I am sure some coaches "follow their gut" and think that a chart is for losers. And then kick a one point xp to lead the score 17 - 15.
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Do you have details of the formula itself. I get the plays measured based on down and distance, but the formulas I was looking for, ie: How do they determine the average for each and every down and distance and how is position on the field determined and does it differentiate between left hash and right hash?

The no doubt about it formula as in A=10-yard line. B=Base defense. C=Nickle defense D=A stacked box. E= B+A/C =DVOA.
Or however it works. It's the only way to understand exactly what it is measuring and if there is any chance opinions influence variables.
 
jaydog said:
Do you have details of the formula itself. I get the plays measured based on down and distance, but the formulas I was looking for, ie: How do they determine the average for each and every down and distance and how is position on the field determined and does it differentiate between left hash and right hash?

The no doubt about it formula as in A=10-yard line. B=Base defense. C=Nickle defense D=A stacked box. E= B+A/C =DVOA.
Or however it works. It's the only way to understand exactly what it is measuring and if there is any chance opinions influence variables.
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The real calculation is theirs, not public. But they say they throw all the (for example) 1st and 10s from the 25 together and look at the average outcome and then compare it to what you did on that play.
Then it's 2nd and 5 and they compare the result vs the average of every 2nd and 5 from the 30.
I think first downs and touchdowns are weighted heavier than other plays.
For example, a 6 yard pass on 3rd and 10 is worth less than a 6 yard pass on 3rd and 5, because getting a first down increases your scoring and opportunities. Punting generally doesnt.

Then if you overperform x% then your dvoa rises. If you get less yards, it drops.

It doesnt matter what formation they ran; with defense they mean the team they played against.
5 yards vs the 2002 Bucs is better than 5 yards vs some cupcake team.
 
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Do you happen to know why they don't post their calculations? I understand it better now tyvm but I need more than what they're willing to show.
 
92.3 theFan's Ken Carman has been saying this game has future implications. We need to beat Pickett from the get go in case he becomes a good QB for them. We can't allow him the thought of knowing he beat us as a rookie and having that positive carry over into future seasons. We need to have that positive to carry over for us. I'm paraphrasing but it's pretty close to that.

I think we need to win cause we already beat them earlier with our B/U QB Brissett. Let's keep it going!
 
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