The " Book It " thread! | Page 2 | Barking Hard

The " Book It " thread!

Now that testing is ramping up, the mortality rate is dropping like a lead balloon. It is down to under 1.2%. Guess the US was prepared and our healthcare was fully capable, despite hording and scare mongering.

Yes, we need to take precautions, but the numbers are what they are...and it shows that outside of the elderly/sick...this is less of an issue than the flu.

I think the media will get bored with this sometime in April as the "mass death" predictions become a red herring. Then maybe life can get started again.
 
Fingers crossed. Cases are exploding at an exponential rate and the healthcare system has the worst ahead of it (and then another few waves of worse)... but hopefully detection does lower the death rate. Seems like that's our only hope now that we spent a month suppressing information to preserve the stock market and our tests-per-person is a global disgrace.

Before anybody tries, nobody from now until a million years from now will ever say Trump did anything but answer the question, "What happens if real tragedy strikes while the worst president in history is still shitting down his leg in the White House? Think he'll worry mostly about the stock market and his reputation?"

(Spoiler: Uhm, duh. He's Trump. He gives no shits about you.)
 
Cases are NOT exploding. That is miss-information. Cases are being IDENTIFIED due to increased testing. Just like cases of cancer in "cancer cells", generally there are more 'identified' due to the increased testing...not necessarily greater concentration.

Right now the severe/critical rates in the US are even below the current death rate...meaning it isn't getting worse, we are just doing a better job of finding it. Further, 2 drugs just hit the market as potential cures/preventatives....so that too should help lower the numbers.

Keep in mind the flu continues to affect millions DESPITE having annual immunization shots. In fact the cases increased LAST MONTH by over 4 MILLION...even at .2% mortality rate, that is about 8,000 deaths...in one month...and 22,000 this year...with an especially high rate on pediatric patients...but nobody is talking about that, or the fact this year's flu is the worst in decades with 479 identified varieties.

News media...be careful to identify what they DON'T tell you.
 
We knew our biggest problem was falling so far behind on testing as the administration ignored the experts... but it's absurdly contagious, we haven't locked down nearly enough, and we're nowhere near the peak yet.

The global outcome death rate is 13%, BTW. Death rate is based on "closed cases," where they're deemed either healthy or not. At that point, from 112,000 closed cases, 13% ended in death.

This is months from over. Social distancing should continue until cases stop doubling and tripling day to day, which is not a good sign whether it's finally testing properly or continued growth. This is a huge motherfucking deal and the response needs to be led by serious people, the peak of the peak experts like Fauci.

I wouldn't televise another moment of Trump. He hasn't said one single truth since it began. He's been a massive part of problem and the slow acceptance by half of our population (and still 7 states with GOP govs).

And to be clear: We're nowhere near caught up to what could be considered adequate testing. No real shot at reaching it so we just have to go China on it and lock'er down. We were too slow.
 
DawgFan said:
Yes, we need to take precautions, but the numbers are what they are...and it shows that outside of the elderly/sick...this is less of an issue than the flu.

I think the media will get bored with this sometime in April as the "mass death" predictions become a red herring. Then maybe life can get started again.
Click to expand...
Square these for me please?

Not sure if this is reflective of your viewpoint, but I see a lot of pushback on the policies being implemented. Too draconian, too negative on the economy, etc. When folks pushing back are asked if they are proposing we should have done a "do nothing" response, they say well of course not. We should just take reasonable precautions.

What does that mean? I haven't read a thoughtful counter-proposal to what we're doing that's make a bit of rational sense to me.
 
Shep said:
We knew our biggest problem was falling so far behind on testing as the administration ignored the experts... but it's absurdly contagious, we haven't locked down nearly enough, and we're nowhere near the peak yet.
Click to expand...

Shep, the 15 day period of social distancing is essentially a nationwide test of 330,000,000 people. Per studies, the medium incubation period for COVID-19 is 5.1 days and 97.5% of people who contract the virus show symptoms by 11.5 days. By closing borders, we are cutting off external exposure and by exercising social distancing for a 15 day period, we limit internal exposure to the family unit. In this way, the 15 day period should allow us to identify and quarantine people who have the virus,

If we had 330,000,000 test kits, the 15 day period would be unnecessary. However, the availability of 330,000,000 test kits is, of course, preposterous. Dawgfan can correct me if I am wrong, but I understand that millions of test kits have been produced and distributed, but those need to be reserved mainly for people with known exposure as well as first responders and other healthcare professionals.
 
I actually AGREE with the vast majority of the policies being implemented. While the numbers are proving to be more on the lines of the flu than the media is willing to say, it is always possible it could be worse...especially for the aged/sick.

The problem with the numbers is they are STILL vastly overstated.

BF hit on it. While there are now a lot more test kits available, only those who are showing signs AND have a reason to not be in voluntary quarantine are being told to get tested. That means millions of people that are positive will never get tested (all the NBA guys are showing no signs, so if it weren't for their mass exposure to the public, they never would have been tested).

Even if you ARE showing signs...if you can quarantine yourself and it won't affect your treatment, you are being told NOT to get tested...again, lowering the denominator exponentially. The testing policies in and of themselves are skewing the rates to look more deadly than it is...but also less wide spread.

Reality, likely we don't know 1/10th of the number infected...which then means the mortality rate is in line with the flu virus...although at this point it is still not as wide spread.

Places like Italy, where people literally live on top of each other and social interaction is much more physical....along with an aging population...are like incubators for viruses and that is why their numbers are so out of line with the rest of the word.

The US has actually done an admirable job of containment...of something that is not totally containable. The policies have likely blunted the spread to some point, but the increased attention to hand washing and cleaning likely did more than the 'social distancing'.

With all that said, I am NOT a doctor or an epidemiologist. I am in healthcare and do data mining to assist with planning and financials. I have to understand what the data means...and right now the data means we are having a ton more issues with this years flu and it is being ignored. Worse season in decades DESPITE all the precautions being implemented for the Covid19 virus...and with 479 variations the immunization is nearly useless....and it is indiscriminate of age, killing babies as fast as the elderly.

The news media, if they reported fairly, could have helped so much more. Their sensationalism and refusal to give the entire picture have allowed people to panic and now they are hurting the efforts to control the virus due to shortages of vital supplies like masks (not needed unless you yourself are sick), gloves (if you touch something with a glove, then your face, it does nothing to protect you), and stockpiling antiviral wipes/cleansers to the point even hospitals can't get it.

THAT is what I have an issue with.
 
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Greythan said:
Square these for me please?

Not sure if this is reflective of your viewpoint, but I see a lot of pushback on the policies being implemented. Too draconian, too negative on the economy, etc. When folks pushing back are asked if they are proposing we should have done a "do nothing" response, they say well of course not. We should just take reasonable precautions.

What does that mean? I haven't read a thoughtful counter-proposal to what we're doing that's make a bit of rational sense to me.
Click to expand...

I think the main problem is misinformation. It seems that all the MSM is interested in is the blame game when they could be presenting helpful information. Read those two posts by Shep and I think you will see what I mean. The President acted to limit travel from China and they accused him of racism, and now they are blaming him for not having immediately available 330,000,000 test kits to test everyone in the country. In ordering the 15 day social distancing requiring the shutting down of certain businesses which will certainly be devastating to the economy, he is following the advise of the experts, not ignoring them.
 
Guys, holy shit. You don't think the problem is the administrations well-chronicled suppression that lost us about 5 weeks?! You think it's the press' and the scientists' insistence on dealing in truth? While Trump is on video repeatedly calling it a hoax?

Okay. I'll step away. And yes, for closed cases, outcomes, 13% of those cases have ended in death. It's not a debatable thing, it's just the actual number. This is huge and currently out of control, NYC is about to become a complete nightmare, we have about 1/10th of the ventilators we need, we turned down German's offer of tests for no good reason...

The state and municipal governments (including Ohio) are picking up the slack but Trump gutted the federal government's ability to make it overarching. Really need to get over blaming the free press every time Trump fails this tragically. It's not the whistle, it's the rape we should be concerned with.

And can the GOP ever try to pass anything that ISN'T another attempt to get Laffer's Curve its first win, or at least non-loss? They just can't let that one go, still waiting for something, anything to trickle down.

Just would've been so much better with any other president from either party. This is obviously a very special case and it happened at the very worst time possible.
 
P.S., really shouldn't become partisan on here. Let's skip the politicians and stick to experts. Here's the head science dude at Harvard, I'll listen to him and Fauci!! This is measured and fairly conservative but the thought is the number of infected could be about 10x the positive tests so far, because we're so behind.

Italy just had two descending days and we're analogous with them, not Korea. Good to see their nightmare might be abating, eager for that day here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outl...=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
 
Head science Ivy league guy that got arrested for starting this germ warfare??
Go ahead and look it up, bty

Wow. Democrats are fucked up. Blocked stim bill because they want the bill to force companies to have more women on the board of directors and force airlines into higher emission standards? Wtf that shit have to do with this virus
 
Dawg kennel said:
Head science Ivy league guy that got arrested for starting this germ warfare??
Go ahead and look it up, bty

Wow. Democrats are fucked up. Blocked stim bill because they want the bill to force companies to have more women on the board of directors and force airlines into higher emission standards? Wtf that shit have to do with this virus
Click to expand...

More Pork barrel BS by the Dems..
 
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Single-day U.S. fatalities exceed 100 for first time, pushing country’s death toll past 500 <a href="https://t.co/R1NPFwSK33">https://t.co/R1NPFwSK33</a></p>— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) <a href="https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1242204123501600769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

We can stop. It's too freaking depressing. 100 dead just today, first time we crossed that number.
 
Shep, you are using a data point that is fabricated. You can't use it because they are NOT TRACKING CURED CASES OF PEOPLE NOT HOSPITALIZED. It is a completely and totally statistically NON-stat...because the denominator is non-provable. People who have mild symptoms and less are NOT retested...so they are not confirmed as having an outcome. It is purely a BS number. No site that isn't politically motivated even ATTEMPTS to make that case.
 
I will not attempt to minimize the risk associated with COVID-19 considering that we have no confirmed effective treatment and a vaccine is months away. I can assure anyone interested that I am taking appropriate precautions considering my age and underlying conditions. I suspect that it could be deadly in my case. Of course, I suspect the common flu could also be deadly in my case which is why I get a maximum dosage flu shot every fall.

There is one difference. In the case of the flu, although we do not know why it happens, due to historical precedence, we have reason to believe that with warmer weather, the flu season will come to an end. We have no such assurances in the case of COVID-19 since there is no historical precedence to guide us. Considering this, I believe the federal and state governments are taking a prudent course with the actions that they are taking.
 
You know what...fuck it...I am pretty damn sure I had/have it. I traveled every week during the outbreak, go to hospitals, sleep in hotels, rent cars, fly in plains....for weeks on end. Ended up with a cough and a slight fever. Was told by the health industry (of which I am a part) to self isolate and never got tested. I am 55 (almost 56) but because my symptoms were mild at best, and I had no pre-existings...they refused to test. I am one of the thousands if not millions that are not reported by all these sites...and I (oh, and all those BB players, celebrities, officials) and all those others are doing just fine.

Whatever...if people want to cry apocalypse, I guess we can't stop them with sane conversation. I bet you didn't even go to the website I provided Shep. Take a look, it is educational.
 
Dawg kennel said:
Head science Ivy league guy that got arrested for starting this germ warfare??
Go ahead and look it up, bty

Wow. Democrats are fucked up. Blocked stim bill because they want the bill to force companies to have more women on the board of directors and force airlines into higher emission standards? Wtf that shit have to do with this virus
Click to expand...

It is remarkable that they didn't somehow work climate change into the equation.
 
Shep said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Single-day U.S. fatalities exceed 100 for first time, pushing country’s death toll past 500 <a href="https://t.co/R1NPFwSK33">https://t.co/R1NPFwSK33</a></p>— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) <a href="https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1242204123501600769?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

We can stop. It's too freaking depressing. 100 dead just today, first time we crossed that number.
Click to expand...

Flu...8000 dead this past 30 days....that's 270 a day!!!

BTW, the death rate is STILL only 1.23%, and that is skewed due to the refusal to test people with lesser symptoms, or that the test won't change their treatment.
 
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