The " Book It " thread! | Page 38 | Barking Hard

The " Book It " thread!

madmadworld said:
Trouble is you are thinking with a old 20th century honest mind. where then there were hard numbers released. these fucks are more advanced the past 25 years. instead of tossing the whole study away when they didn't get the results they wanted, they omit or just change them. Welcome to the Computer age.

Not saying they ALL work this way but


Look at yourself in the latter part of your post you used your sniffer..lol good Man
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The source of the data is part of the data as far as I am concerned.

This is kind of off topic, but one of the magazines I subscribe to is Biblical Archeology Review and in times past one of the raging controversies often discussed at length in the magazine was the subject of provenance. Some artifacts arrive in the antiquities market by way of looters and the question was whether such artifacts should be examined by scholars. I believe this has now been more or less been settled and the consensus is that they should not. Even though they might have value from a scholarly perspective, such artifacts should be ignored because giving them attention tends to increase their value and encourage even more looting.

The alternate argument is that the most important archeological find of the 20th century was the Dead Sea Scrolls. They were largely looted and appeared on the antiquities market where they were purchased first by scholars and then by governments. Should they also have been ignored?

I think it was a good question; there was no doubt that the Dead Sea Scrolls were authentic. But for the garden variety of artifact that appears on the antiquities market, the question often arises as to the question of authenticity due to a lack of provenance.

In my opinion, provenance is as important as any other part of the data. And the only way to be assured of provenance is a scholarly report containing all the boring data regarding the finds of a dig as well as the interpretation of the data by the scholar writing the report. Pottery found in a specific location can date a layer in a dig. That same piece of pottery on the antiquities market is basically useless from a scholarly perspective.

Now back to the subject at hand. For a study of the type of the type we are discussing, a purely random sample of sufficient size to insure accuracy of the results is needed. Corrections for deficiencies are often attempted, but the results are less reliable. The source of the data is important.
 
Purely random

Brownsfan said:
The source of the data is part of the data as far as I am concerned.

Now back to the subject at hand. For a study of the type of the type we are discussing, a purely random sample of sufficient size to insure accuracy of the results is needed. Corrections for deficiencies are often attempted, but the results are less reliable. The source of the data is important.
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Generally totally agree with all that. but your definition of "purely random" and mine would be the same. yet our minds could be changed by a person with more knowledge of what that definition is.
I'm not saying any of these we are talking about here were questionable or rigged, just that many of these are not what they were years ago.
you dig me ? lol
 
madmadworld said:
Making people wear mask is a very small thing. our generation(1945 to date) have not been asked to make ANY sacrifices compared to those who came before us. save our Military members.

People who Cry Freedom, freedom comes at a price. wearing a mask to do your part, as Joe would say Come on man...lol It's pennies
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I respect your opinion but do not wholly agree with your mask statement
 
Cloth masks are completely worthless and in some cases harmful.

Medical personnel working with the sick should properly use PPE.

Common sense, wash your hands, stay home if your sick.


You can’t believe anything you read concerning the #’s.
You can pick and choose what mask expert you want .

Kids should be in school and I don’t like the idea of kids being forced to wear a mask.
Ridiculous to have healthy kids be fearfully educated.

Would love to get some of that public school $$, I’ve been left no choice but to enroll all my kids in private schools. They are the only ones by me who are returning full time.

Yep, destroy the family structure.... that’s going to workout real good.
 
Team Player

hammertime said:
Cloth masks are completely worthless and in some cases harmful.
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I agree. we should only wear only 3 or 4 layer surgical masks or n95. along with proper educational video on how to wear and remove them.
hammertime said:
Medical personnel working with the sick should properly use PPE.
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if we know nothing and just observe we know mask work. if not all testers and medical personnel would have been stricken.
hammertime said:
Common sense, wash your hands, stay home if your sick.
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for sure

I don't Know if wearing masks would work as well as the"experts" say. but just maybe half of that. if wearing them by us saved just one person just of being sick.... why not do so ?
 
madmadworld said:
I agree. we should only wear only 3 or 4 layer surgical masks or n95. along with proper educational video on how to wear and remove them.

if we know nothing and just observe we know mask work. if not all testers and medical personnel would have been stricken.
for sure

I don't Know if wearing masks would work as well as the"experts" say. but just maybe half of that. if wearing them by us saved just one person just of being sick.... why not do so ?
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We are not a callous species as to disregard human life but I’d like to think we could comprehend
That you cannot stop the world for this virus.

Absolutely abomination of our youth and young parents helpless to put there children in harms way.


Take back America people, don’t let the radical left destroy us!
 
madmadworld said:
I don't Know if wearing masks would work as well as the"experts" say. but just maybe half of that. if wearing them by us saved just one person just of being sick.... why not do so ?
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The question is, where and why should people wear masks (assuming the type of mask to be worn is settled)?

The obvious answer in my opinion is when one is in a closed-in environment and around people or when one can not otherwise social distance.

I think most people are willing to wear a mask/face covering when at work if they are serving the public in their jobs or if they are in relative close proximity with other employees. I think most people are willing to wear a mask while in a public store such as grocery store, a department store or when entering and leaving a restaurant. That make sense.

But tell me I should be wearing a mask anytime I am outside my home, my response is you have got to be kidding. If I am outside for a walk by myself and in a situation where I am easily able to maintain social distancing, why should I be required to wear a face covering?

How is that saving lives or even keeping people from getting sick?

And, by the way, wouldn't it save lives if people were restricted from driving more than 20 miles per hour on the freeway? I mean, even if it saved just one life, why not do it?
 
Roads

Brownsfan said:
And, by the way, wouldn't it save lives if people were restricted from driving more than 20 miles per hour on the freeway? I mean, even if it saved just one life, why not do it?
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In a couple hundred years or less we will look like savages. willing to kill more people on the roads than Wars. all to move from point A to point B. think of today's youth and Statues. just saying
 
madmadworld said:
In a couple hundred years or less we will look like savages. willing to kill more people on the roads than Wars. all to move from point A to point B. think of today's youth and Statues. just saying
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In our modern society, we take chances that cavemen didn't because they couldn't and we can. But the chances we take are relative.

When I was young, my older sister and her husband who was in the army drove from Georgia for a visit soon after the birth of their first son. After the visit of several days, as they were getting ready for the trip back, the last thing I observed before they sped away was that my sister got in the car on the passenger side and my mother handed the baby to her to carry on the trip back to Georgia. Now, we put babies in car seats in the back and adults use seatbelts. Does that sound like the equivalent to face coverings and social distancing to you. Does to me.

Funny thing about both the caveman era and our modern society. Death is ever present, essentially part of life. We might as well get used to the idea. We can't prevent it.
 
There seems to be a current avalanche of articles and reports suggesting that there has been a current significant increase in coronavirus cases.

In looking at the data from Worldometer, I fail to see any such indication. The following is an update of prior post discussing a recent downturn of Coronavirus cases, particularly in the southern and western states previously under much scrutiny:

Brownsfan said:
There has been a significant downturn in the number of new infections in the United States since about July 25. Based on a 7 day running average, the number of new infections per day has dropped from 69,159 on July 25, to 55,490 on August 7. To confirm this for yourself, you can select the following link and scroll down to the graph for "Daily New Cases in the United States" and check the 7 day moving average checkbox:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This represents a drop of 13,669 for new infections per day in 13 days--or an average daily decrease of 1051 cases per day in the United States. To get an idea of how significant this is, if this trend were to continue for the next 54 days, the number of new cases would reach zero. It is not anticipated that the coronavirus will disappear in the United States, but it certainly appears that if this trend continues, the numbers of reported infections will be significantly diminished in the coming days.

Southern and western states recently in the news for surges are leading the way.

Arizona has had a 27 day reduction of new infections from 3626 new infections per day on July 11 to 1578 new infections on August 7. This represents an average daily drop of 76 new infections for the 27 day period. And while one would not expect the virus to disappear in Arizona, if this rate of decrease continued for the next 21 days, the number of new infections in Arizona would reach zero.

California has had a 13 day reduction from 10,261 new infections per day on July 25 to 6750 new infections per day on August 7 representing a daily drop of 270 infections per day. At the present rate of decrease, California would reach zero new infections in 25 days.

Florida has a 20 day reduction of new infections from 11866 on July 18 to 5054 on August 7, and at the current rate would reach zero infections in 27 days.

Note: Texas also has had a recent reduction in new infections, but at a lower rate of decrease than the other three states. The reason for this is not understood since although Texas has a lower case to population ratio than Arizona and Florida, its case to population ratio is similar to that of California and California seems to be responding similarly to Arizona and Florida.
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Nationally, I would note that the downturn in new cases has continued although it has slowed and while deaths have increased, this is principally due to a general lag of deaths behind new cases:

Based on a 7 day running average, the number of new case have dropped from the peak of 69159 on August 7 to 54503 on August 13. This does represent a reduction in the rate of the drop. Whereas the drop before was 1051 new cases per day from the peak, it is now only 741 per day. Nevertheless, the overall downward trend continues.

Also, California has not done as well recently as might have been hoped and has actually had a fairly significant resurgence before again trending downward. Therefore, while the overall downward trend continues, the drop per day has been reduced from 270 per day to only 78 per day.

In Florida also, the downward trend continues, but not a rapid as the earlier trend. The number of new cases basically almost leveled off for a number of days before again heading south. Thus the drop from the peak has been reduced from 340 cases per day down to 199.

On the other hand, Texas has improved significantly. While on August 7, it was basically on a plateau after dropping for several days, it has began to drop again increasing its drop rate per day from 106 new cases per day to 121.

Arizona has continued its downward trend unabated and actually increased it somewhat from about a reduction of 76 new cases per day to 79. At a 7 day running average, Arizona has reduced it running day average from 3636 to 1021 in 33 days. If the pace of reduction continues, Arizona should be back to its pre-surge level of about 350-400 new cases per day in less than two weeks.

Other southern and western states have had similar reductions reflected in the national downward trend. I have a problem seeing a reason for new alarm at this point.
 
madmadworld said:
San Quentin’s coronavirus outbreak shows why ‘herd immunity’ could mean disaster
https://www.latimes.com/california/s...unity-covid-19
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Three points and an argument:

First, I agree that "San Quentin is an imperfect setting to help understand when herd immunity might be achieved. Prisons are crowded settings that will promote coronavirus transmission more so than among people in other settings, like those who live in single-family homes."

Second, merely mentioning that the phenomenon of herd immunity may have a role in reducing future infection rates does not necessarily imply that the one mentioning it advocates disregarding methods of avoiding the virus in order to achieve said herd immunity.

Third, the article acknowledges that the rate of infection in the prison has slowed but the author seems to insist that since it was not completely stopped, herd immunity must not have been achieved. However, this is short sighted since herd immunity can also have a partial effect.

I would argue that herd immunity was undoubtedly the main driver behind the slowing of the spread in the prison. Otherwise, what else would one assign said slowing? Likewise, I would argue that it was very likely the main reason that certain states such as New York and New Jersey did not experience a surge in new cases recently when other states did. I would also argue that it likely had the effect of limiting the surges in at least some of the states that had them. The degree of herd immunity does not need to be absolute. It is possible for it to have a partial effect. A partial effect is better than no effect at all.

One need not advocate for the disregard of safety measures in order to acknowledge the fact that herd immunity can have a beneficial effect on the spread of the virus. I do not advocate against the wearing of masks and social distancing. But if the spread of the virus spreads nevertheless, I do not consider it inconsistent to suggest that the herd immunity that resulted may have limited the spread in a particular case.

By the way, it is interesting that a prisoner's parole was expedited after he contracted the disease and recovered. Presumably, he will now be replaced with a new prisoner who has not been infected with the disease. On the other hand, I guess I am glad his parole was expedited. I think we have entirely too many people in prison that are not a danger to society. I only hope that he was one of those.
 
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The following are statistics with regard to the prior surge numbers for daily new cases in selected states bases on the 7 day running average, the peak level of new cases and the current level. For reference, the population of each state is shown in parenthesis next to the state and the percent reduction from the peak level to the current level is shown in parenthesis at the end:

USA (330.5 M) June 1 NC level = 22,276, Peak = 69,159, Current as of August 14 = 54,102 (21.8% reduction)

California (39.56 M) June 1 NC level = 2,619, Peak = 10,261, Current as of August 14 = 9,121 (11.1% reduction)

Texas (29.0 M) June 1 NC level = 1,333, Peak = 9,980, Current as of August 14 = 7,068 (29.2% reduction)

Florida (21.67 M) June 1 NC level = 726, Peak = 11,866, Current as of August 14 = 6,458 (45.6% reduction)

Arizona (7.17 M) June 1 NC level = 508, Peak = 3,626, Current as of August 14 = 953 (73.7% reduction)

South Carolina (5.08 M) NC level = 281, Peak = 1,948, Current as of August 14 = 946 (51.4% reduction)

Ohio (11.69 M) June 1 NC level = 474, Peak = 1,342, Current as of August 14 = 1,127 (16% reduction)

Georgia (10.52 M) June 1 NC level = 642, Peak = 3,717, Current as of August 14 = 3,270 (12.0% reduction)

Oklahoma (3.94 M) June 1 NC level = 69, Peak = 1,093, Current as of August 14 = 663 (39.3% reduction)

Nevada (3.03 M) June 1 NC level = 115, Peak = 1,170, Current as of August 14 = 746 (32.6% reduction)

The above shows the pre-surge level on June 1, the peak level (typically in mid-to-late July and the current level as of yesterday bases on a 7 day running average in each case.

Obviously, we would like to get back to at least the pre-surge level and in most cases we are quite a ways from that. However, given the above, it is my opinion that the suggestion that it is getting worse is not justified--at least not at this time.
 
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