The " Book It " thread! | Page 40 | Barking Hard

The " Book It " thread!

madmadworld said:
Scientists are reporting several cases of Covid-19 reinfection — but the implications are complicated
www.statnews.com

Scientists are reporting several cases of Covid-19 reinfection — but the implications are complicated

There are now several documented cases of people becoming reinfected with Covid-19. But experts stress that’s not cause for panic. Here’s how to interpret the news.
www.statnews.com www.statnews.com
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Not to make light of the possibility of reinfection, but I tend to agree with Dr. Mina;

“There are millions and millions of cases,” said Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The real question that should get the most focus, Mina said, is, “What happens to most people?”
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Worldwide, there have been over 25 million reported cases of Covid-19. The likelihood is that there has been as many as 250 million actual cases (using the 10x multiplier which appears likely, or at least possible).

And we now have several documented cases of reinfection and the researchers are wondering if these might be outliers?
 
The following is a status update on the number of cases, deaths and hospitalizations for Covid-19 cases in the United States and for new cases and deaths internationally.

In the United States, after a peak of 69,330 new case per day (based on a 7 day running average) on July 25th, the number of new cases has dropped to 42,685 on August 29. This represents a 38.4 % reduction in the number of new cases per day in 35 days.

The number of deaths are also decreasing although the number of deaths did not follow proportionally to the increase in the number of new cases. After an early peak of 2,256 deaths (based on a 7 day running average) on April 21 before dropping to 513 on July 5th, we had a second peak of 1,177 deaths on August 4th which has since dropped to 951.

Hospitalizations have dropped from a peak of 59,885 on July 23 to 35,730 on August 29. This represents a reduction of 40.3 % in the number of hospitalizations for Covid-19 cases over a period of 37 days.

After months of rapid growth in both new cases and deaths internationally, the number of new cases and deaths per day worldwide have hit peaks and both have finally began to drop. New cases have dropped from a 7 day average peak of 258,160 new cases on August 14, to 252,931 on August 29th. Deaths have dropped from a peak of 5858 deaths to 5436 since August 13th.
 
www.politico.com

Falling Covid-19 cases create opportunity and peril for Trump

Virus cases are dropping everywhere, but the rush to reopen could backfire.
www.politico.com www.politico.com

By DAN GOLDBERG
08/30/2020 09:00 AM EDT

The positive trends are real. Covid-19 cases have been falling since late July, including in several battleground states. Hospitalizations have dropped 37 percent in the last month and the daily death count is leveling off.

But that doesn’t mean the pandemic is over, even if Trump and his team portray it that way.
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I don't think anyone actually believes that the coronavirus is going away. Even after we have a vaccine, it will still be with us to a degree. But since we will never again be able to live without it, I think we need to find a way to live with it. Learning to live with it does not require denial of it's existence. Rather it means it that we just have one more hazard to contend with.

The circumstances create a moment to reinforce public health measures like testing, tracing and social distancing that could finally bring the outbreak to more manageable proportions, while the world waits for a vaccine or new treatments.

Trump hasn't been inclined to go that route, instead pressing states to reopen and slowing down testing. In his closing speech at the Republican National Convention Thursday night. the president said it was time for Americans to return to work and school, and called on Democratic governors to open their states.
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First, I don't believe that I have seen any evidence that the Trump administration desires to slow testing. However, testing is limited in what it can do. It does nothing to prevent one from contracting the virus. As an instrument of contact tracing, it may be useful. My view is that if we could lock down for some reasonable period of time and then it would be safe with the virus gone, I would support that. But since I believe it will continue to be with us regardless for the foreseeable future, I think we need to get on with life and accept it as just one more hazard among many that we currently contend with.

Morgan Stanley projects at least 6.5 million U.S. infections by October, and the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation on Thursday predicted more than 260,000 people could be dead from the virus by Election Day, a 44 percent increase from current levels.
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Election day is about 65 days away. Assuming the current rate of infection of 42,704 (7 day running average) as of yesterday, the number of new infection would be 2,775,760. Add that to the current 6,173,236 and one arrives at a total of 8,948,996. While I expect the infection rate to continue to drop, unless we very quickly get an effective vaccine, I think Morgan Stanley has underestimated the number of recorded infections by election day and very considerably underestimated the actual number of infections which I suspect is several times the reported number.

Regarding deaths, at the current death rate of about 950 deaths per day, which has been declining somewhat lately, my calculations indicate that about 61,750 additional deaths are likely between now and election day. Add that number to the current number of deaths attributed to Covid-19, 287,224, and my estimate for the number of deaths attributable to Covid-19 on election day will be close to 248,974 deaths or about 11,000 less than the IHM.
 
That's a ton of bad numbers thrown our there Cliff. The CDC just admitted that only 6% of the current deaths attributed to Covid are actually from Covid. The rest are from something else. Covid MAY have contributed in some of those deaths, but more likely the victims already horrific state of health did them in. Just like a common cold or a mild case of flu could. It's been obvious for months that Covid deaths were taking over and being substituted for every other type of death. No more heart disease, no more lung cancer, no more pneumonia, or flu ...it's an absolute miracle.

As far as a vaccine goes ...it's not going to happen. Oh they will sell something to inject into you for billions to our government, but taking a vaccine for a virus is laughable at best.

 
This CDC "report" doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. unless those 9,683 people who died were TOTALLY healthy humans. What age group breakdown ?

searching that page doesn't even show that number.

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

not surprised
 
TheBestPlayersPlay said:
That's a ton of bad numbers thrown our there Cliff. The CDC just admitted that only 6% of the current deaths attributed to Covid are actually from Covid. The rest are from something else. Covid MAY have contributed in some of those deaths, but more likely the victims already horrific state of health did them in. Just like a common cold or a mild case of flu could. It's been obvious for months that Covid deaths were taking over and being substituted for every other type of death. No more heart disease, no more lung cancer, no more pneumonia, or flu ...it's an absolute miracle.

As far as a vaccine goes ...it's not going to happen. Oh they will sell something to inject into you for billions to our government, but taking a vaccine for a virus is laughable at best.
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Gabe, get real. The vast number of deaths associated with both Covid-19 and other maladies were primarily the result of Covid-19. Nowhere in the CDC report does it say that only 9,683 people died from Covid-19 and that the rest were from other causes.

To be frank, I think both the number of new cases and deaths are underreported. I have previously discussed why I think the number of new cases were under reported (asymptomatic cases that were not reported) but now I think it is probably also true with respect to death. The reason is a calculation I have made based on CDC data. If you go to the CDC report, near the bottom, they have a link to a visualization of "Excess deaths." This is a graph showing the expected number of deaths and the excess deaths. If you click on each weekly bar, it shows the expected vs the expected (weighted). I put the data into a spreadsheet and added up the difference and it came to a total difference of 226,523 deaths. In other words, in the USA, we had a calculated 226,523 more deaths than normally expected for the period (until now). That is nearly 40,000 more deaths than one might have normally expected during that time period including Covid-19.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Figures present excess deaths associated with COVID-19 at the national and state levels.
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

However, both new cases and deaths are declining. I think it is mainly due to a thing called herd immunity. In my view, the combination of herd immunity due to natural infection of the disease and from a vaccine are fundamental to getting back to normal. I understand that you do not believe in vaccines and I respect your point of view. I would prefer that everyone get the vaccine when available because it deduces the risk for everyone, but I think you have a right to abstain. And even without the vaccine, while Covid-19 is dangerous and will remain dangerous into perpetuity, we have got to find a way to live with it because we can't lock down forever. We have to open up the economy. We have to live.

This is from the CDC:

nbc25news.com

CDC has not reduced the death count related to COVID-19

The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not “backpedal” on the number of deaths caused by COVID-19, reducing the figure from nearly 154,000 to just over 9,000, as social media posts claimed. Mid-Michigan NOW first published the story over the weekend that showed 6 percent of the...
nbc25news.com nbc25news.com
 
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Talk to any honest doctor on earth. We have one who is a member of this forum. The Covid deaths are wildly over reported. Your word "primarily" is made up nonsense that allows you to believe you haven't been had. The 6% # is directly from the CDC website, they can backpedal all they want. As far as positive cases, who cares? It's a virus, it will continue making its way through our population until we achieve herd immunity, which is not just common sense, it's science. The lockdown was a joke. Sweden did it right. Get real, right back at ya.
 
This is a copy of the CDC graph:

Capture.JPG

Those excess deaths did not occur because of obesity or diabetes or a heart condition. Despite my age, it is possible that I will live with my heart condition for years. I get Covid-19 and I am most likely dead within a couple of weeks.

(By the way, I really like the new functionality of the board. It made illustrating my point easy. I plan to use it a lot.)
 
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My parents are your age. They both have issues out the wazoo. They are fine, stop falling for the fear porn. You get a bad case of the flu you are probably more likely to die. You stick a person with a bad case of the flu in a nursing home there in May/June and don't let them out, a lot of old folks are likely to die. It's called reality. Ask the 7 liberal governors why they did that. As hammer mentioned, deaths down overall this year from last year.
 
TheBestPlayersPlay said:
Talk to any honest doctor on earth. We have one who is a member of this forum. The Covid deaths are wildly over reported. Your word "primarily" is made up nonsense that allows you to believe you haven't been had. The 6% # is directly from the CDC website, they can backpedal all they want. As far as positive cases, who cares? It's a virus, it will continue making its way through our population until we achieve herd immunity, which is not just common sense, it's science. The lockdown was a joke. Sweden did it right. Get real, right back at ya.
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I am basically with you on herd immunity except with this caveat. Herd immunity is not a absolute sudden thing. Rather, it is a gradual effect. As more people are infected and recover, the more difficult it will be for the virus to find targets that have not been infected and the rate of infection goes down. But it will not be stopped. It will not be eradicated from infections and recoveries. The spread merely slows to the point where it finds a point of equilibrium. The only exception would be a 100% effective vaccine given to 100% of the people. I think herd immunity is the reason for the recent significant reductions in the number of cases in California, Arizona, Texas and Florida. But, I do not expect the rate to drop to zero.

Also, I don't think the shut down was a joke, but I do think it was largely ineffective in stopping the spread. New York shut down just as the virus spread was beginning and the infection rate accelerated until a significant number of the most mobile and socially engaged portions of the population were infected and either recovered or died. Telling people who were the least likely to get the disease to go home and stay there to avoid it was not particularly effective. The ones most likely to get it were the ones who continued to ride the subway. When a significant number of those people got the disease and recovered, the infection rate began to drop. Basically the same thing has now happened in California, Arizona, Texas and Florida among the most mobile and socially engaged--except with a lot less death. I think it has been the selective herd immunity of the most mobile and socially engaged portions of the populations of those states that have mitigated the problem.

But we need an effective vaccine to essentially complete what nature has started.
 
Trump knows he can only acknowledge and address Covid as super serious, he knows he was being trapped. Invoking wartime measures for ventilators, PPE etc caught the Dems off guard. Never in history has there been a response to a ‘pandemic’ like you’ve seen from this administration.

it truly has been remarkable, think about it.

masks are for medical professionals dealing with sick folks. If you want a face diaper have at it. Won’t judge you too much .

when my employer says put on a mask I put one on, reluctantly. Biggest bunch of BS I’ve ever seen.
 
TheBestPlayersPlay said:
My parents are your age. They both have issues out the wazoo. They are fine, stop falling for the fear porn. You get a bad case of the flu you are probably more likely to die. You stick a person with a bad case of the flu in a nursing home there in May/June and don't let them out, a lot of old folks are likely to die. It's called reality. Ask the 7 liberal governors why they did that. As hammer mentioned, deaths down overall this year from last year.
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Well, I certainly hope your parents don't get the coronavirus. It can be deadly for people my age with underlying conditions.

As for me, I am willing to accept some of the risks associated with the disease just as I am willing to accept the risks associated with driving a motor vehicle. I have therefore decided to eliminate the portion of the risks that means little to me and accept the risks for things that make life worth living. If I die as a result of acceptance of the risks I choose to accept, so be it.

When they first announced the "two weeks to slow the spread" (remember that), I cut myself and my wife from all close contact. But when it stretched into another month, I reassessed and decided that being in close contact with my kids and grandkids was worth the risk. Leila and I have had overnight visits from each of the minor grandchildren this summer and we hug them just like we always have. We go out to dinner when we want. (Just got back from the Rib Crib.) However, we maintain social distancing, wear face coverings and avoid close contact with everyone except members of our immediate family.

This is not necessarily what I would recommend for everyone. It is just a description of the risks I have knowingly accepted. My attitude is that we need to learn to live with the virus since we are not going to be able to live without it.
 
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