It is so hard to understand a disease with results of infection ranging from asymptomatic to devastating illness and death. Unfortunately, it has made contract tracing largely ineffective without extensive and timely testing. And even then, it is hit and miss.
I guess I am thankful for any therapeutic that helps people survive the virus, but it is hard to get excited for anything less than an effective vaccine against this scourge.
Done very little looking at Sweden over this journey.
Neither had I except in passing until that open letter from the Swedish doctors. The funny thing about the letter is that it came out shortly after the graph for new cases had taken a decidedly unexpected downward turn. I suppose the biggest surprise was the speed of the descent. In less than a couple of weeks, the number of new infections was cut in half as it continued its downward path.
This was unlike other examples of possible herd immunity such as has occurred in Spain, Italy, UK and New York in which the descent in each case was much more gradual.
I guess I will always wonder why the 25 Swedish scientists and doctors waited until after the number of cases had dropped so drastically before issuing their letter. The weeks before the quick descent would have been met with more agreement. Now we have a full blown debate on herd immunity. See the following Political article:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/24/sweden-catches-first-glimpse-of-herd-immunity-381117
“We are clearly at levels which are very significant,” lead epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told reporters at a news briefing on Tuesday. “The reduction we are now seeing speaks strongly in favor of a very large immunity in the population.”
One of the things to note is that the immunity rate due to infection by the virus never approaches 100%. In Italy, for example, they still have about 200 new cases per day. In the UK, it is around 800 cases per day. There has actually been resurgence of the virus in Spain recently. After being in the range of 200 cases per day for a couple of months, they are back around 1500 new cases per day. New York has been in the range of 800-1000 cases per day for the past month. I think it is a case of the virus never being quite successful enough to eradicate itself in a mobile society. Instead, it reaches a point of equilibrium consistent with the degree of mobility of the society in which it is infecting.
Sans vaccine, I am of the opinion that a similar point of equilibrium would eventually be achieved all over the world, and flare-ups would occur and die out with or without intervention. I think it is actually the natural state of affairs. Indeed, it is as close to Darwinism as you are ever likely to get. Hopefully, a vaccine can give us a better natural state of affairs.
This is a Melbourne problem mostly. not slowing yet. that phone app didn't work for them they say. sad...... they almost had it gone.
Unfortunately, Australia is virgin territory for the virus.
