I had grok analyze both QBs and determine which one has the highest likelihood to succeed. It didn't say much we don't already know, it did differ however on which QB would be better for the Browns, which is interesting. Do we want good, or do we want great?
To predict which of the two top quarterback prospects for the 2025 NFL Draft—Cam Ward (Miami) or Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)—is likely to have the most success at the NFL level, let’s break this down by analyzing their statistics, career trajectories, the schools they attended, and the competition they faced. This assessment will consider their college performance, playing styles, and how their skills might translate to the professional game.
Statistics Overview
Shedeur Sanders
Career Stats (Jackson State 2021-22, Colorado 2023-24):
47 starts across two schools.
1,705 pass attempts, 1,224 completions (71.8% completion rate).
13,613 passing yards, 127 passing touchdowns, 23 interceptions.
12 rushing touchdowns, modest rushing yards (not a primary runner).
2024 Season (Colorado):
4,134 yards, 37 TDs, 8 INTs, 74% completion rate.
Took 56 sacks, reflecting pressure from a weaker offensive line.
Key Strengths: Elite accuracy, high football IQ, and exceptional toughness under pressure (99 sacks over two seasons at Colorado). Excels in short-to-intermediate passing with anticipation and touch.
Cam Ward
Career Stats (Incarnate Word 2020-21, Washington State 2022-23, Miami 2024):
53 starts across three schools.
2,329 pass attempts, 1,536 completions (66% completion rate).
17,040 passing yards, 157 passing touchdowns, 37 interceptions.
17 rushing touchdowns, 2,000+ rushing yards (dynamic dual-threat ability).
2024 Season (Miami):
4,313 yards, 39 TDs, 7 INTs, 67% completion rate.
Added 4 rushing TDs, showcasing mobility.
Key Strengths: Big-play ability, strong arm, and athleticism. Thrives in chaotic situations and extends plays with his legs.
Career Trajectory
Shedeur Sanders
Schools: Jackson State (FCS, 2021-22), Colorado (FBS, 2023-24).
Trajectory: Sanders started at Jackson State under his father, Deion Sanders, dominating FCS competition with a pro-style offense. Transferring to Colorado, he stepped up to Power Five (Pac-12/Big 12) competition, maintaining high production despite a porous offensive line. His experience in a pro-style system under Pat Shurmur (a former NFL coach) at Colorado enhances his NFL readiness. Sanders has shown consistent improvement in accuracy and decision-making, with a notable reduction in interceptions from his FCS days (3 INTs in 2023 at Colorado vs. 8 in 2024 despite increased pressure).
Development: His progression reflects adaptability across offensive schemes and resilience against adversity, key traits for NFL success.
Cam Ward
Schools: Incarnate Word (FCS, 2020-21), Washington State (FBS, 2022-23), Miami (FBS, 2024).
Trajectory: Ward began modestly at Incarnate Word, then exploded at Washington State, showcasing his ability to produce against Pac-12 defenses. His transfer to Miami in 2024 elevated his draft stock further, leading the Hurricanes to a 10-2 record with an ACC Championship Game appearance. Ward’s career arc shows a steady rise in competition level, with his 2024 season highlighting his ability to perform against stronger defenses (e.g., Louisville, Florida). However, his decision to sit out the second half of the Pop-Tarts Bowl raises minor questions about his competitiveness in non-critical moments.
Development: Ward’s growth lies in his playmaking ability and athleticism, though he still exhibits occasional inconsistency (18 turnover-worthy plays in 2024 per PFF vs. Sanders’ 8).
Schools and Competition
Shedeur Sanders
Jackson State (FCS): Faced lower-tier FCS defenses, where he posted gaudy numbers (70%+ completion, 40 TDs in 2022). Limited exposure to elite competition.
Colorado (Pac-12/Big 12): Stepped into a rebuilding program with a weak offensive line but faced solid Power Five foes like Nebraska, Kansas State, and Utah. The Big 12 in 2024 wasn’t an elite conference, but Sanders consistently performed against respectable defenses (e.g., 388 yards vs. Kansas State). His stats held up despite facing the most pressure in FBS (197 pressures in 2023).
Takeaway: Sanders proved he could translate FCS dominance to FBS success, albeit against mid-tier competition with limited support.
Cam Ward
Incarnate Word (FCS): Similar to Sanders, dominated lesser competition early in his career.
Washington State (Pac-12): Faced credible Pac-12 defenses (e.g., Oregon, UCLA), averaging over 3,000 yards per season. Competition was solid but not elite.
Miami (ACC): Played against stronger ACC teams (e.g., Louisville, Virginia Tech) and an SEC opponent (Florida). Ward’s 2024 performance against Power Five defenses was impressive, though not overwhelmingly superior to Sanders’ (e.g., 319 yards vs. Florida in a loss). Miami’s better supporting cast (e.g., receivers like Xavier Restrepo) aided his production.
Takeaway: Ward faced slightly tougher competition overall and thrived, benefiting from better team talent at Miami.
NFL Translation and Prediction
Shedeur Sanders
Strengths: Sanders’ accuracy (74% in 2024), anticipation, and pocket presence mirror traits of successful NFL QBs like Jared Goff or Drew Brees. His experience in a pro-style offense and ability to read defenses pre-snap suggest a high floor. His toughness (standing in against pressure) and media-savvy persona could make him a franchise leader from Day 1.
Weaknesses: Limited arm strength and athleticism cap his ceiling—he’s not a dual-threat QB like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. His tendency to hold the ball (leading to sacks) must improve, though this is partly due to Colorado’s poor offensive line.
Best Fit: A team with a decent offensive line and a West Coast or timing-based offense (e.g., Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans) could maximize his strengths.
Cam Ward
Strengths: Ward’s arm talent, mobility, and improvisational skills evoke comparisons to Russell Wilson or Jayden Daniels. His ability to create outside structure and make deep throws gives him a higher ceiling than Sanders. His 2024 stats (39 TDs, 4 rushing TDs) highlight his dual-threat potential, a prized trait in today’s NFL.
Weaknesses: Less consistent accuracy (66% career completion) and decision-making (18 turnover-worthy plays in 2024) suggest a lower floor. His reliance on athleticism may not translate as well against faster NFL defenses if his processing doesn’t improve.
Best Fit: A creative offensive coordinator (e.g., Giants with Brian Daboll, Browns with Kevin Stefanski) could unlock his potential in a play-action, RPO-heavy system.
Prediction: Who Will Have More NFL Success?
Shedeur Sanders is the safer bet for immediate and sustained NFL success due to his polish, accuracy, and mental acuity. His high floor suggests he’ll be a reliable starter (think Kirk Cousins or Jared Goff), capable of elevating a team with moderate support. His trajectory from FCS to FBS shows adaptability, and his pro-style experience reduces the learning curve. However, his ceiling is limited by modest physical tools, likely capping him as a good-but-not-great QB.
Cam Ward has the higher upside and could become a star if he refines his decision-making and adapts to NFL speed. His dynamic playmaking aligns with the modern NFL’s emphasis on mobile QBs (e.g., Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields). Yet, his inconsistency and reliance on improvisation pose risks, especially if he lands on a dysfunctional team early.
Verdict: Cam Ward is more likely to achieve greater long-term success at the NFL level due to his superior physical gifts and playmaking ability, provided he lands in the right system and develops further. Sanders will likely be a steady, dependable starter, but Ward’s ceiling as a potential top-10 NFL QB gives him the edge in a league increasingly favoring dynamic talents. The 2025 draft process (e.g., Combine, interviews) and their landing spots will be critical, but Ward’s trajectory and tools suggest he could outshine Sanders over a full career.
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